Recession Radar

Real-time economic dashboard tracking recession signals

Last updated: Tuesday, April 15, 2025, 3:29 AM PDT

Current Economic Assessment

Based on the latest available data, the economy shows mixed signals with moderate expansion but some areas of concern.

GDP Growth Rate

Quarterly economic growth

+2.8%
Q1 2025 (Advance Estimate)
Healthy
Next update: Late May 2025

CPI Inflation (YoY)

Consumer price index

+3.2%
March 2025
Caution
Next update: Mid-May 2025

Unemployment Rate

Percentage of labor force

3.8%
March 2025
Healthy
Next update: Early May 2025

Manufacturing PMI

Purchasing Managers' Index

51.5
March 2025 (50+ = expansion)
Healthy
Next update: Early May 2025

Consumer Confidence

Index of consumer sentiment

98.0
April 2025 (Preliminary)
Caution
Next update: Late April 2025

Initial Jobless Claims

Weekly unemployment filings

210K
Week ending April 12, 2025
Healthy
Updated every Thursday

Retail Sales (MoM)

Monthly consumer spending

+0.5%
March 2025
Healthy
Next update: Mid-May 2025

Housing Starts

Annualized new construction

1.42M
March 2025
Caution
Next update: Mid-May 2025

Fed Funds Rate

Central bank interest rate

5.25-5.50%
Current target range
Caution
Next FOMC: Late April 2025

S&P 500 Index

Real-time market index

5,050
As of 3:29 AM PDT
Healthy
Live updating

Current Economic Assessment

Based on the latest available data as of April 15, 2025, the U.S. economy presents a mixed picture with moderate expansion but some areas of concern.

Positive Indicators

  • GDP growth at +2.8% (Q1 2025)
  • Unemployment stable at 3.8%
  • Retail sales up 0.5% MoM
  • Manufacturing PMI in expansion (51.5)

Areas of Concern

  • Housing starts declining
  • Consumer confidence decreasing
  • Fed funds rate remains elevated
  • Inflation still above target at 3.2%

Key Takeaways

While the economy continues to expand, the combination of high interest rates, moderating inflation, and declining consumer confidence suggests potential headwinds ahead. The labor market remains strong, but housing market weakness bears watching.

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